I think too many here are confusing collecting with investing. While certainly not independent of each other they are seperate things.
Not brand new in mint box, it is not!* And it's not going anywhere... PS2 is at the low point right now, in 5 years and onwards the prices will start to creep up! Wii is the next one - I need to bag myself a mint Red one, the same with a few DSi and PSP when the time is right! (*I should have said, all those systems in my previous post were retail bought in mint, sealed boxes!) Agreed, While I use the excuse to my Missus that these games will help pay our way in 35 years when we retire, secretly I just love walking into a games room that looks better than any retro store in the UK does!!! I hope that these things will be worth some money then, but nobody can be sure, and after carrying them around for 30+ years at that point (and some of the tapes I have had since new back in the mid-80's), who is to say I will even want to give them up? My Atari 8-Bit copies of Bounty Bob Strikes Back, Bruce Lee, Boulderdash and Dropzone are coming with me in the case when they burn me up! And that is another thought... Anyone who is seriously thinking this might be a good investment need to consider the following: How long will magnetic media last? Disks and Tapes will surely be screwed 30 years from now. How long will carts last? Won't the EPROM's get bit rot, or otherwise loose their ability to retain data? How long will optical media last? Given that Laserdisc already have bit rot themselves! We might just be archiving a bunch of boxes and manuals, plus the physical shell of the game that no longer works!
Magnetic media is very resilient. Carts are roms, it's really only the battery corrosion to worry about. Optical media will last 100 years or so, perhaps more it stored properly and it was made well. In 30 years people will be playing on emulated hardware with images. Look at msx, there is onechip msx system and you load games onto a sd or whatever. There is already a psx emulator on the market in china. Those items will become keepsakes and if stored properly will keep value. Sealed moreso as no one will ever open it.
This is important and troubles me as well to certain extent. As for carts, EPROM's have a lifespan of 25-30 years iirc. NES carts for example use mostly masked roms, which will pretty much outlive us before losing their data. Optical media depends a lot on the manufacturing process/materials, some companies made great durable CDs and Laserdiscs, others made them as cheaply as possible so those won't last for much longer before rotting. (please correct me if I am wrong, I know just a little about the subject)
I think the technology to reverse those effects will exist at some point in the future. The question is whether there will be enough people interested in this sort of thing for them to develop it to be used in that way. Maybe, if we're lucky, people in the future will view videogames as art historians view art now; precious artifacts to be preserved for future generations to enjoy. Although, if that's the case, they'll probably be relegated to museums.
Eproms can last far far longer than 25-30. Poor heating conditions and exposure to sunlight are what damage them. Typically when keeping things like this in the closet it doesn't get too hot and there are obviously not as much UV rays.
The value of games definitely deteriorates with it's rerelease on new consoles (although frustratingly it doesn't seem to have damaged the value of Rez that much, hmph.) I definitely think the methods used to damage the used value of current-generation games may well harm the collectable nature of these games, as even those that are NOS will have parts missing when their respective networks move on without them (although, I guess multiplayer remains the bonus it won't be much different from the decline in original Xbox collectability or the value of most multiplayer EA games 2 years after release).
There are all sorts of collectors, but if you want to treat games as an investment: 1. keep them sealed! 2. Stick primarily to Nintendo games (like assembler said), jRPGs, and games with extremely low print runs. 3. Hardware in general is not a good investment.
Fixed. Games with low print runs are expensive, especially sealed, yes. Just look at Taroumaru, Akumajo Dracula or Dodonpachi. But I believe games with ridiculously high print runs are usually much more sought after and theremore more likely to increase in value because the demand increases as well the older they get. Some of the most expensive sealed games are also some of the most popular ones like Super Mario Brothers, Final Fantasy VII, Castlevania SOTN or Zelda. As Assembler said, people collect memories. Although I disagree on some level, because people also collect for their collection's sake. That said, $1 Million for an issue of Batman Action Comics does not imply that this is a particular issue the buyer loved to read as a child. Maybe he finds it terrible. But he's probably a huge fan of Batman, so he bought it anyways. The same might apply in the future to rare games for the PC-Engine, the Saturn, Neo Geo and other consoles that did not receive such broad attention (in the West at least).
Well I was referring to games that get low print runs soon after their release. If you buy them once their value has already gone through the roof there's not much point. For instance, SolaToRobo which was just released on the DS seems to be having the bare minimum number of copies produced to meet demand. It's also the superior version fyi because all the dlc from the JP/PAL release is built in for the US release. High selling titles probably aren't a bad investment either like you said, so long as you avoid sports games. Fighters sometimes appreciate in value (MvC2), but in general I'd avoid them too.
I would strongly disagree with this. Magnetic media is only as resilient as the components used to make it. Many early floppy discs used poor quality adhesives to actually assemble the outer disc cover, dust inserts that disintegrate over time, etc...While there are some floppies that will last 40-50 years with minimal errors, I suspect the vast majority of them won't last anywhere near that long, especially if there has been any alteration in humidity or storage temperature. As for optical discs, some may last for a long time, while others as recently as from the mid-90s are already unplayable. It depends on who manufactured them and how. Cartridges are anyones guess. Lots of people have non-working cartridges they have acquired over the years. The point is, unlike collecting coins or ceramics or something durable that may fade or take on discoloration over time, collecting recorded media is a more short-term endeavor. Ultimately, all recorded media will fail and certainly, keeping it sealed won't help especially when the shrink wrap starts to shrink further, becomes sticky and interacts with the acids in the cardboard box or plastic cases it surrounds.
i agree with the statement that generally collecting nintendo is better if you're speculating as an investment but i think that the unique (quality) titles available to a specific mainstream platforms will have a similar demand to collectors/gamers. "casual gamers" will tend to go towards the nintendo stuff (partly due to nostalgia as mentioned) but there will be people looking for quality games regardless of platform/developer i think these people will still be willing to pay the premium for these type of games in 10+ years. though the supply and demand of both these areas of game collecting will depend on the 80s/90s console gaming fanbase either staying at level similar to just now or increasing and i don't really see it increasing enough to affect pricing in the way it has done in the last 10 years (i am only drawing on my limited prespective/experience here though).
I don't personally collect for value, so how items appreciate/depreciate doesn't matter much to me. I do think that non-Nintendo items will hold value, however. It's not like anyone's ever going to sell an Elemental Gearbolt Assassin's Case for $50. I don't know about actual appreciation, but there are few uncommon items in my pile that aren't worth at least what I paid for them. I think most uncommon items are a good store of value if bought at a reasonable basis, not so sure about creating value.