How long will this HD generation last?

So for the past ten years or so now TV displays and video game systems have started outputting at really high resolutions. Back in the day old tube TVs lasted for generations being capable of handling new systems that were thrown at it, but how long do you think this HD generation will last until someone's TV set is obsolete? Displays these days are capable of displaying up to 1080p, but will we ever get to the point within the next ten years where people will have to upgrade their equipment for new gaming consoles like the new Xbox or PS4? Or do you think our HD displays will be a good investment for years to come?

Discuss.

 

My 42" HDTV still has a resolution of 1024x768, I would upgrade if I knew what to do with this monster.
Leason learned I jumped on the big screen bandwagon way to early.

 

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As above. 4K won't come in for a while now until the government and cable companies can create a good infrastructure for handling that much data. Especially now because purchasing movies as a physical product is basically obsolete, so it'll need to be streamed or downloaded.
And with Canada's current worlds-crappiest-internet-speeds...

A single movie is about 160GB in 4K native resolution. Until we start having 2TB micro SDs I think 4K will be out of the question.


Investing in a 1080p TV set is a good idea.

 

The problem with 48fps is that it's not just a technological improvement though, it alters the entire artistic style of movie-making. While The Hobbit was a nice experience, it also felt like watching a very long computer animated cut-scene and quite unnatural (or maybe we are just not used to it after 120 years of 24fps movies). Personally, I would not want to watch all new movies in 48fps, I think it turns the style into a video game animation.

 

Screw framerates, I like my cinema at 24FPS.(though I did like the idea a few years back of filming at a higher rate and then dynamically using framerates as the scene needs it.) How about some non-crappy compressed Chroma or better video quality in general? HD Cable TV is still only stuck at 1080i, horribly horribly compressed at that.

4k Will fail because people are still adjusting to the move to 1080p. And there isn't enough benefit when 99% of the material ever produced is less than that resolution.( not that much of a benefit for Film/video anyway unless viewing on a gigantic screen or 2 feet from the screen) Plus when you are using just as crappy compression/masters. Streaming a decent quality 4k video would be very un-realistic. Would require an insane amount of bandwidth (+your bandwidth cap. I only get 100GB per month)for a file that is probably already compressed as it is. 4k is 4 times the resolution of 1080p, they need two Dual-Layer BD's just to keep quality good on films like The Lord of The Rings.

4k is more beneficial for games than video IMO(A lot just from rendering at that resolution and downsampling to 1080p. Which some people can already do with PC games. It looks insanely good. I can play some games up to about 3k Resolution. It is glorious). Helps solve aliasing

For example: Here is Sonic Generations @3200x1800 w/FXAA Downsampled to 1600x900 with completely stable 30FPS (2x2 OGSSAA = 4x As much resolution. Basically equivalent to if you downsampled to 1080p from 3840x2160 4K)
https://i7.minus.com/i1JwaK6FbcEqN.png
https://i6.minus.com/iTI4xxu5SJCwD.png




Either way, personally I'll never buy into streaming as a replacement for physical media. It's just insanely impractical and much lower quality.

I'd much rather have to buy a 6 BD set to watch a 3 hour 4k Movie than stream it.


Also: The PS4 and next xbox won't be capable of playing games at 4K(Unless they come out with second models with more horsepower. Unlikely). Not at the level of visual fidelity shown with the UE4 elemental demo(Which is already compromised and downgraded enough to run on PS4 from the PC version of the same demo.)

You might be able to run ports of PS3/360/older PC games at that resolution. (Or downsample from that resolution for SSAA)

But the level of stuff they've shown so far? No, I don't think so.

Not with a 1.84TFLOP GPU. GTX Titan probably couldn't run the UE4 demo at 4k with the same level of detail and 30FPS. And the Titan is a 4.5 TFLOP GPU.

 

Considering that people are still buying DVDs, 4k won't be widely adopted for a long time.

 

Use internet in Australia, then you'll know what's crap.

Even BRRips are huge though, it's out of the question to stream them here... Unless you pay $150 p/m for "supersonic" broadband which is only like 50GB limit. Defeats the purpose right?

 

I'm not actually sure that the vast majority of people actually care about HD yet.

There are obviously some out there that have HD but here (in the UK) it's not yet the norm, despite all TVs sold now being at least HD ready (as in 720p).

I know plenty of non-gamers with HD TVs and no HD source, I know plenty of people with 360s and/or Ps3 and an old CRT - which in the UK means 480p at best since there were very few HD CRTs released here.

I've even seen people with HD TVs talking about how great their ps3 looks on it whilst plugged in via composite...!

IMO, 1080p isn't well enough established to be thinking of what next.
Blu Ray is still too expensive when for most it offers little over DVD, except additional cost, 4k is almost a world away!

As for PC gaming, PCs have always run games at higher resolution for those willing to invest in the equipment, surely that's the answer.

In the UK, the Xbox 360 was probably the first mass selling HD device, when it arrived in Dec 2005, I was the only person I knew in real life to own a HD ready TV (this still was pre-blu ray and even hd-dvd I reckon).

So, TV wise, I think the current HD generation (as in 720 / 1080p) will be around for at very least the next console generation, possibly into the following.
Once Microsonytendo release a higher res console, then it'll begin.

For now, I'm glad I have a 1080p 51inch 3D TV though, and don't regret the purchase at all

 

I read somewhere that the PS4 might include Sony's 4K streaming service. I imagine this generation might be similar to the previous gen (PS2/GC/Xbox) where some games support the new format or a lower-end version of it. I don't think it will take as long for people to adopt 4K as it did for them to adopt HD. People are more used to new technologies appearing than they were in the past. My guess is that it will either become popular very quickly, or it will be a failure, like 3D TV.

 

I think a few people have their facts wrong. Living in the UK, I recall purchasing a HDTV maybe 6 years ago when it was a fortune.
Second of all, with technology always getting better and better, I'm sure that by the time 4K becomes mainstream, most of Australia will have decent internet for that matter

I live in London, have unlimited internet and get promised 10Mbps internet, when in reality that is only for watching YouTube and browsing the web, Skype... ...well not as good.

I record gameplay using a special technique that requires me to slow down a replay, play it back at 10% of the original speed, and then speed the video up. In other words: my PC plays Black Ops II at 4K res with 2FPS. By slowing the video down I get 20FPS in the recording. Because the recording is 10 times as slower as usual, I increase the speed so I get 20FPS x 10 = 200FPS.
My result is a 200FPS, 4K file.

The problem isn't with streaming content, or having a compatible TV, it's with aquiring a GPU which can render at a decent FPS on so big of a resolution.

 

No you won't have to upgrade, but you're asking the wrong question. The question you need to ask is, will you want to upgrade.

The PS4 is supposed to have 4K support for movies, but it will also work with lower resolution screens. Will you be buying a PS4 and is it important to you that you can watch movies in the highest possible resolution? If you don't already have a 1080p TV then the answer is probably no.

You'll either need to buy/rent the bluray or stream the video over your internet connection, which you may have to pay to upgrade or it might not be up to it at all. 4k screens are going to be expensive for a long time as well.

Now is a reasonable time to buy a 1080 LCD, I bought mine six years ago and it was double the price you can pick them up for now (and that was with a 50% discount because it was end of line). I don't have 3d, but I can't justify spending the money on something I'm not that interested in.

If mine lasts then I'll only buy a new one when I can justify the 4k price. I don't know when that will happen though, but I'd expect it to be before 2020.

 

Interesting, thanks for the replies! The reason I ask was I was considering investing in a number of HD screens for a large gaming setup and didn't really want to spend all that money on a number of screens that might need replaced in the next five or ten years. Seems I'm still set for a few years to come yet.

Me personally I've never bought an HDTV, I still have my old Panasonic CRT from 2003. My family and friends all have owned a few HD screens but personally I've never had a desire to upgrade. Even now I'm still happy with the picture quality on this TV, it's clean and crisp with good contrast and well defined colours, both while watching TV and especially when playing games via RGB. HD is clearly superior in many ways but I still prefer the lag free benefits of a good old CRT and never play modern games enough to warrant buying a new screen. Even DVDs still satisfy me, again Blu Ray is clearly superior in many ways but DVD quality doesn't disappoint me in the slightest.

On a side note I watched the Hobbit in 48fps last night and you can deffinately see the difference, the CGI is indeed like watching a video game cutscene! Not sure I like it either for cinema.

 

There are more than a few issues with 4k right now...
Very few cameras/recorders support it.
The size of the files is almost un-imaginable.
Raw picture is 48gb/minute!

If you really want to geek it out....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tI3ImdeGWnU&feature=youtu.be

 

Hmm, seems interesting, might give it a watch in bed later.

 

I'm going to say around another 7~10 years until the next big t.v craze happens. Maybe then I'll find it worth the money for a new t.v if my CRT goes away on me. But I would think not. The real question is will the disc media die out and form something new for physical media first, the VSH then DVD and Blu-ray, what next?

 

Till whenever game developers lose interest in milking each series a millions times.

90% of video game franchises from the 90`s now suck, bad.
Dont even get me started with Spyro The Dragon. Just look at his series now. :disgust::sorrow:

 

I would say that it really depends on what you're using your screen for.

For traditional TV, it might last for a really long time, subject to how fast your country picks up newer standards. I know that Singapore is a bit slow with that... with 1080I only being the maximum video mode the Starhub cable set-top box supports (with most channels still being non-HD). -_-"

As for gaming consoles... probably about 2 more generations or so (~10 years) before the next standard becomes an option... but it'll probably be about 20 years before any of them become the norm.

When the PlayStation 2 came out in year 2000, the hardware was already designed to support 480P, 720P and 1080I (And 1080P as well, with some hackery)... although the later 2 video modes weren't often used (and the hardware wasn't actually adequate). So it's been 13 years since then, and 1080P has only just gained popularity in the current generation of consoles (Although not all titles support it).

 

Don't forget 3D TV is trying to move in and do better than just a niche market. I wouldn't be surprised if before 2020 comes around a console is capable of using 3D TV. to get 3D visual.

 

Doesn't the PS3 do 3D...? Or did I just misunderstand what you meant?