The lines between console and pc are melting, and the extreme power of cpus versus what we do with them is a growing disparity. What does the future hold? Given the power of cell and the multi core push in consoles and pcs, several things have struck me as being radically different and representative of a shift in technological progress. 1. Video game consoles will become more powerful than computers. I predict consoles will become impressively powerful machines that must, by their nature, double or greater in power every 4-5 years.Consoles can no longer be said to do only one thing. They have lan, they have software, OS, and the next generation will probably have the ability to assume pc functions. They are multi thread machines, powerful enough to be used to control any electronic device and automated machine on the earth. The demand for greater graphics and processing for interactive environs is their primary drive. 2. Computers seem to be more and more noticably driven by a performance model that evolves at a much slower rate than games consoles, and in many ways is forced and artificial. The demand for better graphics and interactive environs is not the primary drive in computers. The average PC is a machine that barely uses the computational power it has to offer. A 3.2 GHZ machine purchased today will be just as effective at the web and office applications ten years from now. The web and e-mail evolve much slower than console applications. This has several effects. A marked disparity between "enthusiast" pcs and home pcs will evolve to an extreme. A home pc with e-mail, web, and office applications requires very little computational power. This will lead to "home pc" becoming more and more an overpowered, underutilized machine. If intel spends $1 billion researching the next generation of chip, and the home market can get the same level of performance out of the previous chip for the next ten years versus any next gen chip, what happens to the industry? Intel sells the next gen chip it makes for the same price as the older chip, except now they have $1 billion to recoup before there is profit. The only driver is industry and commerce. Is that enough? Probably, but with forced obsolescence through stoppage of production of previous chips, what do we do with all the unused cpu cycles? Should this artifical support of Moore's Law continue? More on that later. The enthusiast PC market is more and more approaching the lines of consoles, and consoles likewise. Nvidia in ps3, Nvidia in your PC. Eventual cross platform will become the norm. The main comparison of the enthusiast pc versus a console will be the matter of independance and control. The ability to build,destroy, change,upgrade, and be 100% in control of the system seems to me to be the mantra. The content will be the same on both levels at some point in time. So what to do when your pc has a P8 sextuple core that does 1000gigaflops and you only play bedazzled? 3. Greater focus on immersive technologies. Given the P5 chip will be multi core, and the average pc user will use perhaps 10% of the power of the chip at any time, it's akin to using a ps2 as a calculator. What do we do with all of the extra cpu cycles? 2D displays have their limits: Immersive reality. Yes, VR fell off the deep end of the PC cliff a long time ago, but with the recent advent of 3D LCDS and the upcoming massive cpu power, it could be the way to go, but immersive 3d everquest, are we ready for that? Tactile feedback. Feel the wind on your skin in Quake 12. Probably not a good idea as even PERCEIVED harm can be fatal. Bushmen in australia have been known to lie down and die after perceiving themselves to be cursed. The last thing we need is people dying in a virtual fire. A.I. EX: Tachikoma in Ghost in the shell. Aibo. Faithful smart servants. Fun gameplay. Death ? Worst case we have a sentient being evolve., for we will have ceased to be relevant at that point. Cooperative community processing: Everyone donates their cpu cycles in the world. Aids is cured in 25 days. Cancer in 100. Bird flu in 37 hours. Well that's it. Really just some thoughts I have had. The future seems interesting, but I can't help but think of chips like cell and the multicores as something akin to skylab.
Yeah, I'd say that makes sense. We can definetly get more out of a 3.2 ghz machine than say an old 486, and games are going to be the force that drives the development of faster processors and such. However, I don't see game consoles evolving into "entertainment centers" any time soon. Perhaps the technology just wasn't there when 3DO and CDI tried to do it, maybe it'll work this time around. Remember in Back to the Future II, when you walk in the house and just say "lights on" and the lights turn on? I see your entire house being computerized, with all the lights, shutters, toilets, microwave, etc. patched in through some sort of voice control, and a game system comming standard with the house. This would be at a point far enough into the future that graphics had hit the realism that sound has today (say, 10 years or so from now.) But I don't see any kind of "House of the future" being common for at least 30 years.
Well the way technology is going now, people are also going to become more mechanical and machines are going to utilise biology a lot more. IE: Cybernetic upgrades on humans and a greater use of biological circuits and processes for machines.
Another option entirely would be Moore's law losing momentum, now logic/cpu design techniques have become so hideously complicated. After all, why should it, it is indeed not the case that everybody needs ever-increasing power and storage. More emphasis could be put on price, ecology (power consumption, materials etc.) and longevity.
Interesting stuff there. Personally I don't know what Intel and AMD are thinking with PC CPUs. I'm still using a PIII 933MHz (which is nearly 5 years old now) which is more than adequate for anything outside of playing new games, encoding and video editing - things that a minute minority of PC users do. I've used newer PCs (P4 2.8GHz) in college for just web browsing and Word and crap, and though stuff may load *slightly* quicker on them the difference is barely noticeable - not to any normal person anyway. It's come to a stage that for this kinda stuff it's only really the hard disks and networks that are slowing things down, and faster CPUs aren't going to make much of difference. I think the PC industry should try make a clear difference between business/basic home low-end PCs and high-end PCs, and try to implement new technologies in a different way for low-end systems. With low-end systems, they should try and just go for efficiency, reliability and low power consumption over anything else - surely it would be possible to make some remotely powerful CPU, say around 1.5-2.0GHz P4 power, which wouldn't even require a fan? I know VIA have done similar with around 800-1000MHz CPUs, but they're ass due to their really small caches. If Intel and AMD tried to do something similar they could probably do a much better job. There's other things that can be improved - office PCs CERTAINLY don't need HDDs bigger than 40-80GB (OK, excluding pr0n collections 10-20GB will be fine...), so WD/Seagate/Maxtor/Hitachi/whoever should try and make HDDs around this size that are ultra-reliable - you know, something that isn't guaranteed to die after 4-8 years like normal hard disks are. I'm sure if they *tried*, the PC industry would be able to make a PC adequate for office/basic home use that would barely use 50W and wouldn't cost too much - say €600-800?
hehe you seemed to answer a lot of your own points and a lot of the things you want are allready in motion. Mac Mini @ £340 entry level model with 85Watt PSU.
I know, but Windows-based PCs have become too commonplace in the workplace. Apples would just blow Joe ECDL's mind!
I would enjoy Matrix type games. Like load yourself into a virtual world and be able to feel everything *Except* pain. Jump off a skyscraper and land on your feet, and then walk away. I dunno, these type of games might make people confused and do this stuff in real life!
yeah, but what do you do if you're game froze or if you can't escape it? ok, perhaps the last problem looked too much like in a sci fi \action\ kung fu movie i won't name. :-D anyway, a fps, mgs-like ot rpg game would be way too cool in VR. :smt045
You guys aren't taking into consideration the marketing of these products. Microsoft will keeping making big, bulky, inneficient programs, and Intel & AMD will keep making faster chips, and market them as power that everyone needs. I think now that digital cameras and video cameras are getting more and more consumer-friendly priced, and they're getting easier to use, you will see a lot more people doing these things that actually do take a lot of CPU power. Is it enough to justify a lot more horse power? No, but they can still market it as such.
I don't know, I don't think we've hit the roof on what can be done on a computer yet to say that we don't need more processing power. It's not just games or video editing I'm talking about. Imagine an operating system that transfers information to you through chemical-tactile stimulation, information encoded by arrangement of atoms into molecules transmited by neurochemicals like D.M.S.O., or even nanoprobes, as in you just touch it and the information is sent straight into your brain through your nervous system. Imagine no more having to use a mouse, or even look at a computer screen. A machine that acts like an artificial brain, that you store information in that you can retrieve as fast as thought. It wouldn't have to be wetware either with wires and stuff going into your cerebral cortex, it could be as small as a cell phone ear piece. Need a phone number you heard once eight years ago? Think it and it's there. Read a book once, and the whole thing is stored with you forever. And the thing is you won't get dependent on this computer to take the place of your memory, becasue each time you access this information it strenghtens your own memory of the particular item. Your memory engrams get reinforced by use of the stored digital memory. Thus the computer does not think for you, but merely enhances your memory recall and cognitive abilites. Suddenly everyone can do complex mathmatical equations, instantly access great works of art and literature, reflect and make connections from myrid sources of information, and thus make more informed and intelligent decisiosn. No more repeated testing in schools. Hell, school would problably be just downloaded lessons and would consist of learning how to properly use your digital memory. No more "You aren't qualified for this job." This is what we have to look foward to, when the computerization of our society is totally complete. What sucks is that this problably won't even come close to happening in our lifetimes. But it will happen eventually.
