There has been rumors during this generation that the gaming industry might be hitting a bubble, which would eventually pop like the one in '83 and bring the house down once again. But the thing is that in economic history bubbles tend to be situations were a lot of money is invested, but time passes and there's little or no actual return. There's s a great numbers of these, the most recent (and close to the industry) being the .com bubble. The .com bubble was powered by a (at the time) dwindling silicon valley that saw its influence being taken away, and needed to push for something new. So, the essence of the .com bubble were then future possibilities of the internet, which ironically we are just seeing now, a decade later. This didn't stop product evangelists and so called entrepreneurs from convincing old captains of industry (and people who needed their money laundered) to invest in their unproven ideas. Problem is that results never came, and there was little or nothing to show to the investors. Compared to the current state of our industry the situation is VERY different: not only there are results, gaming is becoming the leading entertainment industry, making waves all over the world. Compared to the early internet which burned through tons of money, gaming is making more money every quarter. Most gamers were afraid of a bubble because of the rising costs of console manufacturing, since except for the Wii every other console were subsidized at a certain point. But actually there was more of a bubble during the Golden Age of consoles, when almost every electronics company launched a console to see if they could capture a share of the market. One could say the market is in perfect harmony right now compared to the 90s, when more than 10 consoles went to the market and only two came out winning: the Genesis and the Snes. There were dire results: Atari folded, Phillips lost a giant wad of cash, Nec closed its console division, 3DO died and Panasonic cancelled the M2, Bandai kept trying with little or no results. Sure SEGA went down not too long after that, but the fact is that it didn't die because of rising costs, but due to all the money lost during that period (90-98) that left them with little to work with. I'm actually more worried about a stagnation of the industry: because of high budgets only big companies can make AAA games now, and they like to play safe, so we see some innovation but not the kind of crazy experiments we saw years ago. Sure most sucked, but those crazy ideas captured the public's imagination, and kept people waiting for more. And even with all the profits investors are still wary of putting their money in gaming, limiting the possibilities of small indie studios. Lets remember that the 1983 videogame crash wasn't a consequence of a bubble like the .com were there were no profits to begin with (beyond stock speculation) but that the flow of money to the industry suddenly stopped when people began to feel games were getting too boring and redundant and stopped buying altogether.
With the advent of Wiiware, XBLA, Iphone apps and the PSN smaller developers are making some path for themselves. It's true though Kutaragi was fired because his bubble popped. Microsoft might hit a similar bump since everything first party is well overpriced. I only have one example. M$ wireless-N for X360 was over $100, I think, while better third party items were far less. Don't have an X360 though... Of course if geeks can't control all aspects of their consoles everything changes. Who here was pissed about the disabling of 'the other OS,' busted test kit fuses, or boot2 bricking? Anti-homebrew might be the next big problem for console makers. The currency bubble of nations' economies is going to be a bigger crash. The U.S., Greece, and Japan are already well past there means. Hindsight is 20/20. source:http://tinyurl.com/2cdhgft
What I meant is that gaming was never a bubble, the 83 crash was simply due to a shortage of new ideas which drove buyers away. Bubbles tend to be speculation, thats why these explode all the time. The housing bubble was based on a theoretical perception of value, and it crashed when the returns couldnt justify the level of investments made.
"What I meant is that gaming was never a bubble, the 83 crash was simply due to a shortage of new ideas which drove buyers away." In Japan there is a feeling that there are other forms of entertainment occupying peoples interests instead of gaming.
I'd just like to say that the so called gaming crash if '83 was only in the states. Europe was going strong with the c16 and spectrum also the C64 then Amiga and ST. So we never really had a time with no gaming just like Japan.
At this rate I doubt what happened in the 80s could happen, and Yakumo was right it was something that only happened in the 80s. In fact it was the gaming market in japan and nintendos decision to move to pursue the American market is what made it rise again. Plus the way publishers and developers are getting stricter about quality i doubt it would happen again.
The video game crash of 83 that really only affected America? Even then it wasn't really a crash more stupidity on the manufacturers parts. Atari were spending millions on R&D projects that didn't have much going for them, Pacman and ET did sell very well (in the millions) however Atari made more games then there were physical consoles sold. Ataris retail presence did mean minor companies had a hard time getting into the major chains. The average age of gamers was under 16, so most didn't have much disposible income. Most companies consoles were looking dated, by 1983 home computers like the Commodore 64 were looking like a better bet. Most companies did have consoles or upgrades that could have kept them in the market, however most lost huge amounts of money by releasing overpriced and underpowered computers (Coleco Adam or Mattel Aquarious anyone?). Although lots of companies fell by the wayside, if you look through history you will see exactly the same thing... Although nowdays there tends to be mergers for the big companies and studios coming and going at the drop of a hat. The golden age lasted quite a long time... from the mid 80s all the way to the mid 90s... The PC Engine outsold the Megadrive (Genesis) in Japan... Er no, Atari did make money on both the Jaguar and Lynx, however they stopped funding projects like the Jaguar 2 (probably as it would have looked like crap against the Playstation and Saturn) so had nothing left. The tramiels sold out and the company was quickly stripped, with the brand and games being sold on a few times... One could argue that the CD-i was never a console rather a multimedia machine (like the Commmodore CDTV and Tandy VIS was), anyway the CD-i was used in the professional arena mainly in kiosks and training well until the early 2000s.... The consumer division was badly thought out and like most multimedia machines of the time they were far too expensive... Only after the still birth the PC-FX was. The PC-Engine was doing very well up until the early 90s when the PC-FX with it's hardware more suited to Anime games and not much else. 3DO sold the hardware department off and became a software developer. Matsushita didn't know what to do with the M2 and probably spent far too long dithering... With what exactly? The Bandai Playdia? A console really aimed at children in the same way the Sega Pico was... The Wonderswan? Again did okay, but trailed behind the Gameboy Color... You really should do your research better, during 1990 to 1997 Sega Enterprises posted profits every year, in 1998 to 2002 they posted huge losses... (source - Sega Japan annual reports....). You just need to know where to look, the IGF showcases innovation and indie games and every year there is always something that is a breath of fresh air. To a degree, however Microsoft with XNA, Apple with the iPhone and too a limited degree Sony with the PSN store and Nintendo with Wiiware do allow indies to create games with lower overheads. Although there is a ton of shit amongst the pearls. There have been lots of indie games that have become fantastic games or have been developed upwards like World of Goo, Super Meatboy and Narnacular Drop. Er again, you really should do some research... in real terms the number of games sold in 1983 was as high as it was the previous years. However there were more games competing for a finite amount of money, with companies making far too many games and shops reducing the prices of games to sell them. Although it's a common misconception that the sales numbers of video games plummeted in 1983 rather then the sales in money terms. Although Yakumo is smoking something funny when he mentions the C16 which came out in 1984 and didn't sell that well even in the UK and was discontinued within 2 years...
Didn't read this, but I can say people have been trying to play the "the games industry will crash" for 10 years now. It's getting old.
Ditto. Face it, just about every idea out there has been turned into a game. So, no room for innovation. Some way, some how, one developer is copying off of another. It is up to the person who plays it, if they have never played old games if what they are playing now is innovative and sadly that is what is happening.
