Why the iPhone will fail

Discussion in 'Off Topic Discussion' started by Shadowlayer, Mar 6, 2007.

  1. Shadowlayer

    Shadowlayer KEEPIN' I.T. REAL!!

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    I had a revelation today while looking at the prada phone review: the iPhone is doomed.

    I had my good number of doubts with the iPhone: the sky high price, the bad carrier, the closed software market, etc...

    The thing is, today was announced that the LG Prada phone (you know, the one that looks like an iPhone) is going to be just $60 with a contract!

    Now, we could say "so? it doesnt matters since the iPod is already expensive when compared to other similar MP3 players" but the fact is that no iPod has been even twice the price of it nearest rival, while the iPhone is almost 10 times the price of the prada phone!

    They share the same screen which, basically is the main WOW factor of the iPhone and the source of its RDF effect. When people see the iPhone they dont care about the hidden specs, they just look at the amazing multi-touch screen, which the Prada has, even with the virtual unlocking slider.

    Plus it seems apple hasnt paid any attention to recent market observations which show that people dont care about PDA apps, they just want a phone thats cool looking, easy to use and can play music. The Prada has all that, except of couse the PDA part (not even a mere virtual QWERTY keyboard).

    I think the best way to describe the Prada is like gizmodo did "I guess it is like the iPhone but without all the things most people are really never going to use"

    And then theres the software: if something made the Palm a success was the easy-to-code lenguage and the freedom the developers had to publish and sell the aps. In the iPhone apple is going for the "console approach" by making necesary for every application to be approved by apple.

    That means the number of aplications available for the iPhone will be the shortest in any handheld. So why would you pay such amount of money if you cant use/make your own apps? whats the point indeed?.

    Theres nothing in the iPhone that cant be emulated: the very aqua-like GUI is so simple a guy made it into a skin for his PocketPC in just a few days, and we're talking about ONE guy, not a team of software engineers like apple wants us to believe.

    So, my point is simple: the iPhone may not end being a complete flop, but its market perfomance will be underwhelming at least, for the simple fact that not everyone can afford a $600 phone with a costly data plan, while theres an alternative thats almost as good, in almost every carrier and for a fraction of the price.

    And lets not talk about the Meizu: is the exact same thing as the iPhone for less than half the price.
     
  2. Barc0de

    Barc0de Mythical Member from Time Immemorial

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    So, is the battery removable on the iPhone? Can you even insert a SIM-card?
     
  3. the_steadster

    the_steadster Site Soldier

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    Where has that price been announced? AFAIK it's going to be priced around the N80/w950i mark, which is much more than $60, more like $200

    EDIT: just found this
    http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/cellphon...one-but-its-a-must--or-so-they-say-241455.php
    A few things:
    The only phone from o2 costing £30 with a 200 minute contract is the LG shine. Some of the better phones available free:
    Sony Ericsson W850i
    Samsung X830 White
    Nokia E50
    Sony Ericsson W710i
    Motorola K1 KRZR
    Nokia 7373
    Motorola Z3 RIZR

    Now in the US, on a 200 minute contract, all you can get for $60 is:
    Razr V3
    W810i
    LG cu500 refurbed
    samsung d807

    Basically, crap old phones, worse than what we can get for free.
    My main point being, that the iphone will probably be released for far less than $500/$600 in the europe and everywhere else where phones are cheaper and more advanced, so comparing a european price to a US price is thoroughly invalid.

    At a guess, I'd expect the prada to release for ~$200 in the US. Then add on the fact that you have wifi and a decent amount of flash in the iphone, and you're getting closer to the mark.
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2007
  4. GaijinPunch

    GaijinPunch Lemon Party Organizer and Promoter

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    Haven't you made all kinds of predictions in the past... none of which have come to fruitition? Maybe not... just grabbing the remnants in my head of some old posts.

    I think everyone has an opinion on what latest piece of bullshit will fail. They are usually wrong. In the case of an Apple product, they are always wrong.
     
  5. Alchy

    Alchy Illustrious Member

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    That's the real crux of it. Never underestimate the potential for brand to overcome technology.
     
  6. madhatter256

    madhatter256 Illustrious Member

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    It won't fail because iSay so.
     
  7. Mr. Casual

    Mr. Casual Champion of the Forum

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    I have an idea for their marketing campaign. I'm sure Mac would love it!

    [​IMG]
     
  8. dj898

    dj898 Site Supporter 2015

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    bit unrelated but expect to see Prada LCD TV or PDP in near future as the joint venture with LG.... ^__^
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2007
  9. Shadowlayer

    Shadowlayer KEEPIN' I.T. REAL!!

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    The thing is none of those has the "oh so pretty!" touchscreen.

    On the other hand when the CEO of Telefonia went to apple, Jobs literally gave him the finger, which makes me believe the iphone wont be available in europe at the same time than the US (launch wise).

    About the price and specs, the irony is that you're giving a good reason why apple should NOT release it in europe and other countries. Thats is, why should apple resign to its historical right to charge a premium just becos phones are more advanced elsewhere?

    I mean, wheres the money? selling a $600 phone in the biggest market on earth? or selling that same phone at $200 (or even less) in a (relatively) smaller, more competitive area?

    Plus theres the fact that the iPhone will be a Cingular only phone, while the LG will be available in almost every carrier. Take for example the RAZR: it wasnt popular until the price went down and every major carrier had it. The same could be said about the StarTAC, but things were a little different back then.

    To put it into perspective: I once saw an article about why renault didnt keep on selling cars in america after the LeCar (the R5 I think): becos making a dent in the US car market is like trying to fly a train. Thats why they went to southamerica and now they are trying to get into china, becos the market there is easier, at least in that sector.

    The same thing can be said about the iPhone going outside the US. After all, I havent heard anything about a 3G version for europe, nor a carrier thats going to have it.

    For me the iPhone was dead when they said devs would need a license to make apps for it....



    PS: the "revelation" part does sound kinda stupid, dunno why I wrote that (tired? drunk? playing GTA?) so remind me not to use it again...
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2007
  10. Sonikku

    Sonikku Gutsy Member

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    I'll be buying one day one.

    And yes, I am an electronics whore and buy everything so I guess I don't count.
     
  11. Shadowlayer

    Shadowlayer KEEPIN' I.T. REAL!!

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    I would buy one if apple would, at least, drop the ban on unlicensed content, cuz honestly, I have enough expensive technocrap in my house thats useless becos theres no software for it...
     
  12. Atenhouse

    Atenhouse Analog Kid

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    If a CDMA version of the LG Prada would be released for Verizon, I'd buy it right up.
     
  13. the_steadster

    the_steadster Site Soldier

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    Firstly, phones here are subsidised by the network, not the manufacturer, so my "Free" phone, probably cost o2 £100-£150, at a guess. While this seems to be the case in the US, it seems less so. My point being, apple would likely get the same cut from selling here as selling in the US, the only difference being the price charged to the customer.

    Secondly, I completely agree with your point about making it cingular only, from what I hear US networks aren't pretty much all equal, and either way some people will always go with one network over another no matter what (network loyalty rather than phone brand or plain old price loyalty)

    What you seem to be missing is that you are comparing the price of a phone in the US to the price in the UK - completely different. You are complaining about the iPhones cost (amongst other things) when the nearest competitor style wise has fewer expensive features, likely worse software and will still cost a few hundred $ when launched in the US.

    Final thought about the Prada - Whilst I know a few girls who'd buy the prada because it says 'Prada' on it, I know of no guys. However, with apple, I'd expect a queue a mile long of both males and females wanting one.
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2007
  14. Shadowlayer

    Shadowlayer KEEPIN' I.T. REAL!!

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    The thing is those "extra features" from the iPhone arent that important for the major (read: the one that matters) part of the market, and on the other hand are limited to the kind of stuff apple will let into the phone, software-wise.

    The iPod sold like bagels simply becos it did what it does, play music, and had an excellent size and easy-to-use interface, while most HDDMP3s were bulky and difficult to operate for most people.

    The only thing the iPhone has is a the multi-touch interface, and even that can be made in other smartphones with just a software update, while making any MP3 into an iPod would require some reverse engineering.

    I dont have any problems with the price (being an apple product then is going to be anything but cheap) what I said is that non-geek people will, for the simple reason that a $600 phone is just out of the question for most of the population.

    The Prada has the multitouch, and for everyone but you, me, the members of this forum and the entire gizmo websphere, the shiny-shiny screen is the only thing that matters, and at a fraction of the price, even if just half of the iPhones MSRP, a lot of users will see it as a great alternative.

    Is not the iPhone killer, in fact theres so much hype around the iPhone right now that is not going to fail (as in making a hole in apple's profits) but what I sense is that the iPhone wont live to the hype, it just not going to become nearly as popular as the iPod did.

    At least not in this generation, but if they drop some stuff (like the software ban) and make cheaper versions (read Nano iPhone) to get a hold of the prada user base, then it may become the IT cellphone of the decade.
     
  15. Barc0de

    Barc0de Mythical Member from Time Immemorial

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    wait wait, wasn't your whole thread about it failing? You can't take it back now!:p
     
  16. Shadowlayer

    Shadowlayer KEEPIN' I.T. REAL!!

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    Dude do I've to explain the concept of context?

    I mean that is not going to fail as the Newton did, just that is not going to meet the expectations, not until they fix some flaws....

    BTW the prada is going for 600 euros unlocked, which makes me wonder

    A-How many people will actually buy the damn thing, and

    B-If that lowend touchphone is going to cost (unlocked) as much as the iPhone costs with a contract, then how much apple plans to charge us for an unlocked iPhone?
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2007
  17. Alchy

    Alchy Illustrious Member

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    Pretty unequivocal. Please do explain how the "concept of context" takes the above statement and transforms it into "theres so much hype around the iPhone right now that is not going to fail".
     
  18. Jasonkhowell

    Jasonkhowell Well Known Member

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    Am I the only one who really doesn't care? I mean, its a nice concept, but it isn't something I am going to rush out to get. Maybe once the internet and gaming functions on phones become better, I may think of it as getting somewhere.
     
  19. dj898

    dj898 Site Supporter 2015

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    Prada Phone is marked as upmarket mobile - i.e. expensive fashion accessory - for those who doesn't mind to shell out 600 Euro without even blink... ^__^
    I'm sure Prada doesn't want any product bearing its name sold cheaply...

    In any case Prada and iPhone I believe target different market segments hence it's moot point to compare each other...
     
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