I couldn't help but notice a little of Shenmue in some of GTA IV's features like the Internet and being able to watch TV or play arcade games (although San Andreas had even more of these little features). The term QTE is probably the biggest influence Shenmue has had on the gaming industry though, and ironically most people wouldn't even know off hand where it comes from.
Do you also think Star Wars would have been the same had George Lucas never seen Hidden Fortress? Or how would the Matrix have turned out if Lost City, Metropolis, Neuromancer, and Ghost in the Shell had never been created? For example: Devil May Cry also has a large level of influence, and was directly influenced by Shenmue in that it is a 3D fighting engine based on stylish moves that can be unlocked as you progress through the game. From here, see Chaos Legion, God of War, God Hand, Mad World, Yakuza, etc... Shenmue modernized the QTE. You'll see this mechanic later in God of War, RE4 & Heavy Rain. Games without full voice acting get panned. Shenmue started this trend. On the backend, Shenmue had a revolutionary budget that still stands today as one of the highest all time, even from 1999! All of this comes from one game. This isn't butterfly effect stuff. There's more to this than imagination; it is the refining of ideas over time. That's influence.
Yes it's exactly like that. And why would that be so hard to believe if it were the case? Anyway I'm out. I still think this whole conversation is ridiculous and I'm not even 100% certain why I decided to chime in, but I still stand by my opinion. I agree Shenmue influenced other games significantly but you have to go back to the question at its very core again and I strongly believe that gaming would be close enough to the same today had Shenmue not come into existence. I just can't help but feel this is all being approached wearing rose tinted, jizz stained glasses just because it's Shenmue we're talking about.
The modern implementation of QTE (blinking arrow or button, alert sound of the blinking arrow or button) may have come from Shenmue but this mechanic was invented by Dragon's Lair. To not mention Dragon's Lair when talking about what influenced QTE is like not mentioning Edison when referring to light bulbs. Shenmue's biggest influence was of course on Yakuza but GTA is a stretch. By the time GTA 3 was in development, an entire generation of 3rd person polygon games had existed on PS 1. GTA 1 and 2 were overhead type games but when it came to GTA 3, it was time to go into the polygon world. This was a natural evolution of the series and considering everything at the time was going into 3D perspective it was inevitable. All of the elements of GTA that are shenmue like (people on the streets, buildings, free roam) were all techincally in GTA 1 and 2, just not implemented in a 3D polygon space.
If Edison hadn't invented the forebears to the modern incandescent light bulb, someone else would have.. And if the original Pilgrim settlers of what is now the U.S. hadn't done it then someone else would have done that too. *twimfyified* Sure those points may be somewhat true, but the ramifications on the timeline and modern reality would be staggering.. I think it's quite foolish to ignore the affects that a groundbreaking title can have on the industry. Mario Bro's spawned a whole legion of clones and launched the platformer into the forefront of gaming for YEARS. Sure, other platformers had existed, sure others would have been made without it, but the mechanics would have been far different resulting in quite a dramatically different generational outcome. What if Sony never tried their hand at the PS and Sega had gotten it right with the Saturn and the 32 bit gen was all about strong 2D, sure someone else would have pushed a 3D polygon based system, but then again, they may have failed *cough* Jaguar *cough* It's all about timing with these things.
I notice little Shenmue influences now and again, though half the time they are probably second or third-hand influences that have come from game to game since Shenmue. Someone got me The Walking Dead games on Steam in the summer sale and insisted I play through them all... definitely some parts feel like they would be very different if it was not for Shenmue.
"Would gaming today be the same without Shenmue?" In a word... NO!! For starters, Sega wouldn't have blown a reported $70m on a series that has entertained about 10 people and remained on a cliffhanger for over a decade with no conclusion in sight. Also, it's likely the company would have been able to sustain itself as a hardware producer long enough to create a next generation Dreamcast successor and maybe even the handheld that was rumoured to be in development around 2002. Who am I kidding? I'm a MASSIVE fan of Shenmue - incomplete or not - and wouldn't have it any other way! My only wish is that Yu Suzuki's career was different after the one-two of Virtua Fighter 3 and Ryo entering that cave... I'd love to think he's yet to realise his potential, much like Hazuki-san and Shenhua, both still (presumably) basking in the light of that floating sword.
too much time has passed for it to even feel like Shenmue anyway, in the unlikely event that it ever happens
Yu should at least release the script or something to at least tell us the real ending. I'm assuming Ryo fucks Lan Di's shit up, but maybe it went deeper than Lan Di. Maybe it got all kinds of fucked up with dragons and shit, I have no idea where Shenmue was going. I think we at least deserve to know what was supposed to happen. Or maybe that Mega 64 gag ending...really was what Yu had in mind.
I don't think Shenmue had a lot to do with Sega failing as a hardware company, even when the DC was released Sega was still fighting problems that plagued them in the CD/32x and Saturn days (like pissing off Walmart, and EA not supporting the system). Then the PS2 came out and the rest was history, even if they had stayed in, the DC would have been fighting the GC for a distant third behind Sony and Microsoft (in the States, Japan hates all Xboxes). Having the second easiest system to pirate didn't help either.