Why I Think Game-on-Demand is the Next Big Thing

madhatter: yeah infinium has a good concept, the problem is that the founder was one of those guys who makes money by fraundulent ways, more precicely with stock fraud. I dont think that if the phantom was released it would be short lived: the system wasnt a console, but a PC, so as long as there's PC games the phantom would have had games to run. I can imagine a small market share of 7% or less...

And gaijinpunch, yeah the govnt just keeps increasing the deficit, but thats why they are asking for loans everywhere. The same with companies that get into debt. The problem is sooner or later the REPO vans will knock at your door...

About consumerism, yeah you're right, we got the power, thats why apple was so sucessful with the iTMS: people was just sick of buying an entire CD just for a few songs, so they were downloading them. So if every kind of media gets into the "on-demand" system, why would people buy VGs in discs?

 

The only reason I don't buy vinyl is b/c I don't have my turntables anymore. I don't buy CDs b/c the music coming out these days sucks shit, and isn't worth it. What I do like isn't readily available anyway, so I'm forced to download mix sets, which is fine by me really. I usually only listen to tunes while working out or on the computer.

My games though, are on an RGB monitor, and look brilliant. That's why I bitch about quality when developers make stupid fucking shortcuts. I will not download one Virtual Console game if I buy a Wii, b/c the system won't support their original resolutions. Why go throug the pain (and yes, it was a lot of pain) to get a setup which allows games to be displayed in the best possible picture (for old school 2D) and then fuck it all up? That's like buying a Bose system and playing a 56kb MP3 on it.

Kinda veared off topic there.

 

The problem with GoD is the fact that gamers like us want that hard copy, and want to know that assuming the media survives time, that it can be played 20 years from now. The problem being, most of the potential GoD crowd (IE us hardcore people who dont mind paying 50-60USD a month for a nice connection) are the gamers that want a hardcopy. The general public who they would like to appeal to just wouldnt have the means to get the GoD content, since they usually have the slower connection that barely can check email or pictures.

Hope that makes some kind of sense heh

 

The general public also don't like change, they're used to going to their local Game store and paying for a game with cash. As aptly pointed out by kamon, due to their age most of them don't have cards, Valve is probably serving a mostly adult and certainly fairly clued-up audience with their games. Many parents are paranoid about giving out credit details, especially on a system where it looks like their kid could rack up a lot of charges.

I'm sick of hearing this "oh God the crash is coming" nonsense, by the way. If one company goes bankrupt, the rest rub their hands and wait for the money to roll in. The idea that the market is going to uppend like it did in the early 80's is moronic and seriously needs to be dropped. There are way too many people wanting to spend way too much money on games, even SHIT ones, to ever cause the marketplace to collapse entirely. If Sony can't make their top games for less than $40 million and it breaks their back, then someone else will figure out a way to make less ambitious but still popular titles for less. Drop this crap about an imminent crash, it's making the the forum look dumb.

 

I see a crash coming, but one involving the quality of games, not a crash of the industry like in the ET era.

 

I'd go with that, if only to add that it's already happened to a large degree. With Wii devkits being so cheap, and Live arcade being so easy, I'm hoping there's going to be some small, innovative, indy titles on the way at the same time.

 

I see that one when I turn around and look back in time a few years.

 

Who said the next crash is going to be like the 80s?:katamari:

Back then the problem was simple: games were crap and people didnt buy them, the end.

Now the problem doesnt involve market nor quality, but the industry: the game development costs go straight to the developer, and stays there. It doesnt affects the publisher nor the end user, cuz as we know games may go as far as $60, but we used to pay that and more during the 90s, and that doesnt mean every single game is going to be that pricey.

What if developers start to crumble one after the other? who's going to make the games? If game studios become all publisher owned (is the current trand by the way) then the development costs would transfer to the publisher, and then to the end user like you and me.

So one day the industry will wake up with their numbers in red, with too much debt and not enough benefits to fix it. The reason why this industry hasnt collapsed before is because the market has grown, but now you need to invest a lot of money to make a profit (see the Xbox for example) and there's no warranty it will work.

There's a thin line between profit and loss in this industry, and if it breaks then the 80s crash is going to look like a joke, cuz no company here will have the capacity to rebuild itself like they did after the last crash.

Honestly, I think the only survivor here will be nintendo, because they have kept both their hardware and software development costs low without a loss...

 

You know, I am tired of people saying that. I am not picking on you specifically (though you did bring it up :nod, but the fact that certain games used to cost more does NOT mean that a $60 pricetag per game is acceptable. The cost of pressing a DVD is considerably less than the cost of fabricating an expensive and complex ROM based cartridge. Yes, I know that the costs are being inflated because of production costs as opposed to fabrication coasts, but all you have to do is look at some of the Xbox 360 games to see how pricing is abused. There is no reason that the 360 version of a multiplatform game (Hitman: Blood Money) should cost $20 more than any of the other versions.

 

Right. Because Nintendo are the only company in the world capable of making games without also making a loss. Whatever...

Essentially you've admitted that it's possible for a company to make games without making a loss. Accepting this, now factor in demand. Hypothetically if all other game developers did crash and burn, Nintendo would suddenly experience a massive, massive rush in demand. People want games. They have money to pay for games with. Games are no longer the kid's toy that they were in the early 80's, the market is mature and games appeal to people of all ages. The idea that they would stop spending their money on games after all these years is absurd. It's like saying "Hollywood's been making shit films for years now, and with all the costs of CGI there's BOUND to be a crash soon". It doesn't make any sense.

 

I think game tap is taking a cue from itunes as well as nintendo, which is provide a legal alterantive to piracy and make money off of it. This concept works for small games and retro

stuff, but doesnt cut it for current gen releases. Still I think something like GoD will eventually take off. But unlike music, collectors and hardcore people want

the physical thing. The reason why vinyl is still produced, even in small qualities is djs as well as a collectors buy them due to the ability to scratch them or

in collectors case hear music with anoulge sound thats lacking in digital meda. And yes they still sell turntables that are brand new. Me however, I feel the

idea of buying classic games on virtual console or xbox live will soon take off fast. I mean honestly, how long will cartridge and disc based hardware from the 80s and 90's will last?

I'm shocekd that my sega cd is still runing strong, even my saturn has outlive many playstations my freinds have had.

 

mairsil: dude you cant just quote what you want from my post, basically because it takes out the context and the general idea, thus the message gets deformed...

About development costs, 99% of gamers out there DO agree with at least something, and that's that the first X360 games look like something you can do in the Xbox. Lets wait until most games have the quality of GoW and then we can talk about development costs...

alchy: again with the context

Dunno maybe you been living under a rock because everybody knwos ninty's strategy with the Wii is keeping development costs at the same (or even below) 128bit levels. While both sony and MS are going high-end on that area, ninty keeps it simple.

What you gotta understand about an economic crash is that it doesnt starts when the stock market goes to hell. As a matter of fact, that's the end, then comes the aftermath. You know something is going straight to the shithole when the market indicators arent good. Yeah hollywood hasnt exploded yet, but profits are down, and that's not because of piracy (as the MPAA says) but crappy movies, and a public that just sick of the same old shit. So hollywood is still there, but it wont be for long unless things change...

The same with the VG market: the fact there's still isnt a Union for programmers/artists (which could be the reason for the increase of bad working conditions) that the quality is going down to some pretty dangerous levels and that the public wants more titles like Bulletproof only means one thing: that the market ISNT mature...

 

How did I take your comment out of context?

 

Obviously I'm aware of the low cost of development for the Wii; it's implied in my post and it's been brought up on the forum several times. Second, the "128 bit" generation? I presume that includes the Xbox with a 32-bit x86 processor?

You really don't want to go down the route of grouping modern consoles according to bits, it's meaningless and has been for the best part of a decade.

Hollywood makes billions each year and will continue to do so, because people love shit films.

I love it when people say the quality of games is going down. You obviously don't remember all the unbearably shit games for the Megadrive and SNES. Most games on those consoles aren't really worth playing. Did that cause the market to implode? Same goes for PSX - over 100 million units shipped, a lot of cash for Sony, and an awful lot of shit games.

That we're seeing titles like Bulletproof really means one thing: marketing departments know exactly who they're selling to - and the sales from that game indicates they are successfully doing so.

 

There will never be any sort of 'crash' for this industry, not ever. Atari was full of cokeheads, that is why it crashed here in the USA back in the 80s. The industry is very much alive and well. IT is still volatile and more pervasive than it was before and no matter what shit games will continue to be developed as long as there is a market for them. Besides the fact that you're saying it will crash because of crappy games being made shows how much you don't know how the industry works. You're just saying that because they are not making games that don't appeal to you, simple as that.

 

mairsil: I say is out of context beacause I didnt say game prices will go up like they did in they 90s, but that now the increase in development costs stays right there in the development area.

Alchy: dude why you make such obvious remarks? we all know there isnt a 128bit console (or processor for that matter) We use the "X-bit" system to divide the consoles between generations....

About hollywood and the industry, why did I said about economic crashes? that it isnt something that goes from one day to the other. Look at the internet bubble burst: it lasted like 4 year. When it began in 1997 nobody would have dare to say it would explode, yet it did and we're still living the aftermath today. The same with hollywood: profits are below past years and going down. That doesnt means hollywood is going to explode tomorrow, but who knows in 5 years...

Yeah most games were abysmal in the 16bit (in fact thats the reason why I'm still exceptic about it being the "golden age" of VGs) yet today we're used to a much higher level of both quality and detail in games, that and the public has a far greater knowledge about technical specs in games and consoles that back in those years, so is harder to keep them buying useless shit like in the companies did before.

And for the last time: this situation isnt even close to that of the 80s. That's was economics 101, as simple as "people dont buy, you're dead" stuff. This time, the collapse is comming in the exact opposite way...

 

i certainly dont see a crash coming anytime soon, especially microsoft and sonys deep wallets to keep things going.

 

If you know it's incorrect, you shouldn't do it. I only make obvious remarks because you make such obvious mistakes.

Because nobody has made any money on the internet in the past 4 years. No sir.

The average consumer knows and cares about as much as they ever did about the content of their gaming console: fuck all. Again you're making the mistake that because you are more educated now than before, other people must be as well.

If you honestly believe that the gaming industry is going to grind to a halt within 5 years, after everything everyone has said in this thread, then I don't think there's anything more to say. Just be aware that to most people you sound like the guy on the corner waving Revelations around and yelling about the end of times.

 

A crash "starts" when the exchange starts tanking. It finishes, when it starts to go back up. Of course, you don't know if you're in the start or end, b/c the yet-to-be reached low or high point of either trend is what dictates the states of the market.

Yeah, nobody makes money off of the internet. Very big difference between a bubble burst and a crash. REALLY big difference, and you need to realize that there are many other words to use to describe a recession that are much more accurate than "crash". For example, "recession". One good way to tell the difference:

Recession: People quit hiring hookers and living lavishly
Depression: People commit suicide.

 

Dude alchy, are you trying to break the absolut-absurd barrier? I told you most people use the bit denomination to number the console generation and are you going to tell me nobody uses it? what do they use then?. Everybody and their dogs use it. They even say "pre-8bit" to the atari 2600 years, even when those consoles WERE 8bit

And the average consummer did GET SMARTER pal: any guy in the marketing area will agree that selling something today is harder than before. Plus (as you may and should know) the average VG buyer is in his late 20s or early 30s, so you cant sell a console like a popsicle, as they (the industry) did less than 15 years ago.

I just say 5 years as an estimate, but hey! what if its before? then I'm wrong too, right?:banghead: